Risk acceptance
....the highest infection rate by far is among the very elderly, especially those in nursing homes. But they were the first to be vaccinated, and since then confirmed cases among nursing home residents and staff have plummeted...
....the mortality rate among other age groups has dropped substantially too....The mortality rate for the elderly outside of nursing homes continues to be fairly high, so they should probably continue to isolate for another month or two.
However, just because they have to isolate doesn't mean that everyone should isolate even if their risk is low. And it is: The average death rate for adults under 50 was about 9 per million in February, almost exactly the same as the automobile death rate. And no one suggests we should all stop driving, do they?
This is not the most cautious approach to the pandemic, but neither is it ridiculous—especially with rising vaccination rates almost certain to keep pushing both case and death rates down.
Though in no case does it excuse the pigheaded insistence on removing mandates for masking and social distancing, both of which are minimally troublesome and clearly save lives.
Overall, then, opening up now makes sense if your willingness to accept risk is just a little higher than average. I imagine that risk acceptance exists on a bell curve just like almost everything else, so it's bound to be the case that some states will open up early, a whole bunch will open up a little later, and a few will be laggards. That's just human nature.
Rob's comment:
Drum ignores an important point: accepting risk yourself doesn't mean you can put others at risk.
That's the point about wearing a mask: it doesn't protect you much, but it does protect people around you if you are infectious.
And you can be infectious without knowing it.
Labels: Pandemic
posted by Rob Anderson @ 11:59 AM
2 comments
2 Comments:
Agreed. The thing that has driven me crazy over the last year is when i hear "younger" people saying this is no big thing (the spring break kids)...they seeming don't get it, the risk that they pose to others, not just older people but those who have other risk factors to the virus. I gather that there will be another bump in cases in another month as the re-openings and spring break cases show up, unfortunately.
Flu cases are usually around 35mil per year sometimes even higher. And always with the older age group most vulnerable. 5900 deaths per 100k up until 2019. Which is about 59k per million. Flu cases and deaths starting in 2020 have been way way down while covid cases have gotten “higher”. Covid Deaths if the numbers are correct as of last year 39k per mil. Which is like what 0.1%? Hospitals on any risk of illness even cancer classify 0.1% as rare.
“That's the point about wearing a mask: it doesn't protect you much, but it does protect people around you if you are infectious.“
That makes zero sense. I can catch covid with my mask on but no one else can?
If you want to get technical all of these lock downs and then implementation of the masks after a few months were essentially so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed nothing else. It is the exact reason why Newsom the prick implemented the second shit down. He emphasized about 20 times that hospitalizations were up. Didn’t want the hospitals to be overwhelmed. What they never explained was how many of those hospitalizations were covid which was a mystery. Also did not explain that because of the original lock down they scared people so much they were afraid to go to the doctors. So when the first ease restrictions everyone flocked to the hospitals. Yes if you’ve been at home sick for months too scared to go to the hospital you know hospitals would get slammed. That’s obvious.
During Newsom second lockdown I went to a routine doctors appointment at UCSF and for the first time waiting room was empty I was the only one. No waiting went straight to see my dr. And I asked her... are you guys busy? Her answer “yes very busy but no covid cases”.
There is a “risk” in buying a stock, crossing the street, driving, walking up a flight of stairs, and so on. Considering the 0.1% covid death rate I’ll assume my own risk. Masks ain’t shit. Never worked.
The storyline has now changed. It’s gone from OMG total covid deaths, to total covid cases, and now the big story is selling you the vaccine like a Chevy pick up truck. If they were that worried about it these days they wouldn’t be letting untested illegals at the border. All would be tested.
It’s all big political game today with “never let a good crisis go to waste” in play.
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