Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Busy freeways or empty trains?

The Antiplanner

The Idiotic Induced Demand Argument

Streetsblog makes the absurd argument that Colorado should run trains that will be nearly empty because the alternative of building roads doesn’t work: new roads get “filled back up with cars in less than five years.” 

This is the old “induced demand” claim, but there is no such thing as induced demand. If there were, then roads in rural Colorado would be as congested as interstates 25 and 70 near downtown Denver. Having just returned from a trip through Colorado, I can assure you that they aren’t.

What’s really happening is that congestion suppresses economic activity. Relieving congestion allows that economic activity to increase, which increases urban productivity and wealth. Having roads fill up in five years is a sign of success, not failure.

Regardless of the cause of increased traffic, how sensible is an argument that says the government should build things that people don’t want rather than things they do want? 

According to this argument, Edison should have made a better whale-oil lamp rather than an electric light bulb; Ford should have made horse-drawn carriages rather than the Model T; and Apple should have made Blackberries instead of iPhones. 

Only government planners would think that empty trains are a better idea than full freeways.

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