Daly and Dufty in 2006? Maybe, Maybe Not

From the San Franicsco Sentinel (http://www.sanfranciscosentinel.com/), pollster David Binder on next year's election in SF:

The pollster assessed the standing of supervisor candidates in the November 2006 election. Districts 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 are up for election. "In 2006 what we should look at primarily is whether Chris Daly is vulnerable in the District 6 election. That clearly is going to be the hot one. He got 51% of the first vote four years ago, and now we're going to have instant runoff and if he gets under 50% that could be a contest there. I think Bevan (District 8) is probably pretty safe, but that was very heated last time with Eileen Hansen, and there may be some progressive people that are trying to edge him out…He has a pretty good rating, and he's also been kind of Newsomish in the sense that he's tried to keep various political persuasions happy. I think Sophie (District 10)…There are all kinds of dynamics going on there that may or may not make that race an issue. Michela (District 2)…I've heard is pretty secure.

Daly did indeed get more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff in 2002 but not by much. All the bad press he's gotten since could push him into a runoff next year, where he would be vulnerable. Since 2002, after all, Daly has encouraged the construction of more than 3000 highrise condos for the rich at Rincon Hill in a city and a district that desperately needs affordable housing. 

And he'll be vulnerable on the marijuana club issue: Under Daly's peculiar leadership, District 6 now has 19 of the city's 35 marijuana clubs. And he'll have to explain his routinely obnoxious political demeanor---the public obscenities, the shouting matches with other supervisors, the tantrums, the bragging about not talking to the mayor for six months, etc.

Bevan Dufty has turned out to be politically timid and a major procrastinator. He's been completely MIA on UC's proposal to build a huge housing development on the old UC Extension site, which straddles the line between District 5 and his District 8. 

Our Supervisor Mirkarimi has done all the political work opposing UC's greedy proposal to cash in on property they've had tax-free from the city for almost 50 years. Whatever happens on that property---whether a housing development or a New College campus---will have a serious impact on both districts. 

His opponents in next year's election will rightly ask, "Where has Bevan been on this important issue? Why do we have to rely on another district's supervisor to look after our interests?" 

And then there was his Trader Joe's waffle; Dufty took a year to come to the conclusion that a Trader Joe's on Upper Market is a bad idea, even though the potential traffic problems alone should have doomed the proposal early in the process. 

His political timidity may be the consequence of the close 2002 campaign when he beat Eileen Hansen by only 1,101 votes.

Alioto-Pier may be "pretty secure" in D2, but her political opponents are likely to ask her to explain her low public profile before, during, and after the ski-jump stunt that disrupted a neighborhood in her district for days earlier this year.