Sunday, June 02, 2013

Millennials and driving: The reality

Wendell Cox at New Geography puts driving, transit, and cycling by millennials in context:

"It is again reported that millennials 'like to live in the city center.' Last year, a report by USPIRG cited a poll indicating that 77 percent of millennials plan to live in urban cores. Their actual choices have been radically different. In fact, 2010 census data indicates that people between 20 and 29 years old were less inclined to live in more urban and walkable neighborhoods than their predecessors. In 2000 19 percent of people aged 20 to 29 lived in the core municipalities of major metropolitan areas where transit service and walkable neighborhoods are concentrated. Only 13 percent of the increase in 20 to 29-year-old population between 2000 and 2010 was in the core municipalities. By contrast, the share of the age 20 to 29 living in the suburbs of major metropolitan areas was 45 percent, higher than the 36 percent living there in 2000..."
"Outside the transit legacy cities [New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, San Francisco, and Washington], transit's impact is slight because of the 'last mile' problem. Transit service is not close enough (or fast enough) to be practical for most trips in metropolitan areas. For example, Brookings Institution data indicates that the average worker can reach fewer than 10 percent of of jobs in major metropolitan areas within 45 minutes. By contrast, the average solo driver reaches work in approximately 25 minutes. There is no solving this problem, because the infrastructure that would be required is far from affordable..."

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