$100 billion more for high-speed rail?

in the SF Chronicle:

California’s high-speed rail needs $100 billion to finish — scrapping the project is a possibility

By Ricardo Cano

March 16, 2024

California’s high-speed rail project has teased residents with recent renderings of how its futuristic trains and massive stations would look. But, despite recent progress and the excitement those renderings have produced, the project remains about $7 billion short of the cost to complete the initial segment from Merced to Bakersfield.

The rail project also needs about $100 billion to make the original vision of linking San Francisco and Los Angeles via bullet trains a reality. And some of the project’s watchdogs say state leaders need to decide soon whether to commit to the entire project — or abandon it....

Authority officials say they’re trying to secure $4.7 billion in federal funds to pay for the bulk of the Central Valley segment’s remaining estimated cost....

State leaders agreed to prioritize finishing construction in the Central Valley first, and the rail project’s supporters hope that the launch of interim service there will galvanize public support to finance the rest of the project....

the state’s high-speed rail project, got a combined $6 billion windfall from the Biden administration’s 2022 infrastructure law, and rail authority CEO Brian Kelly told legislators the Brightline West project “will probably affect our ongoing analysis of where we go next.”

...It’s unclear how, when and if the high-speed rail project will acquire the funding required to complete the Bay-to-L.A. system initially sold to California voters in 2008. 

Kelly, who in January announced plans to retire, told lawmakers it would likely take funding “not just from the federal and state (governments), but probably local and regional partners, as well,” to complete the envisioned system.

California’s bullet train project, though, faces other immediate questions.

The project has been mired by rising cost estimates, delays and litigation — “Phase 1” between San Francisco to L.A. is estimated to cost three times the initial cost projection....

Louis Thompson, chairman of the project’s Peer Review Group, said the costs face “considerable risk” in rising further, “because most of the project remains at an early design stage or less, and there is no experience to date with major elements of the project.”

Exacerbating the problem, Kelly and Thompson both said, is the fact that the project continues to face financial uncertainty. Its sole source of ongoing funds, from the state’s cap-and-trade program, expires in 2030. Authority officials want to extend that authorization to 2050.

Even with an extension, that funding alone won’t be enough to finance the complete project, and Thompson said lawmakers should decide soon whether to commit to building the entire project or cut bait....

See also Biden, Streetsblog, and high-speed rail and Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again by $5 billion