Trial balloons

Randall Hill/Reuters

In today's NY Times:

To the Editor:

The Chinese spy balloon was never about what data the balloon might collect. The flyover was a probe of our defenses with the side benefits (to China) of sowing dissension and redirecting our national conversation.

After several earlier balloon flights failed to trigger a significant U.S. military response, the Chinese made this balloon so big and so bright that the American public could not fail to see it. It was the ultimate Big, Shiny Object. Why did they make it so visible?

Three reasons: First, public awareness of the balloon forced President Biden to take military action. The Chinese learn more about their adversaries every time they provoke a military response.

Second, it let the Chinese see how America responds to a low-level threat. China must have been happy to see that, instead of coming together as one nation, 9/11-style, Americans remained resolutely partisan. The president’s political opponents have used every difficult decision Mr. Biden has had to make as a way to score points against him.

And finally, such a bizarre threat inevitably went viral, directing America’s national conversation away from what we had been talking about just before: the threat of Chinese expansionism and the plans to add new U.S. military bases in the Philippines.

Xi Jinping must be pleased.

Paul Frantz

San Francisco

On the other hand, there's this:

....U.S. officials said some previous incursions were initially classified as “unidentified aerial phenomena,” Pentagon speak for U.F.O.s. As the Pentagon and intelligence agencies stepped up efforts over the past two years to find explanations for many of those incidents, officials reclassified some events as Chinese spy balloons.

It is not clear when the Pentagon determined the incidents involved Chinese spying. When the determination was made, officials kept the information secret to avoid letting China know their surveillance efforts were uncovered, the officials said....

See also Chinese balloon part of vast aerial surveillance program:

....But balloons offer some advantages. They can linger over a target for hours, whereas a satellite orbiting Earth may have only minutes to snap a picture of its target. “If you have a balloon that’s moving extremely slowly you have persistence that you can’t get from a satellite,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Charlie “Tuna” Moore, a former fighter pilot who helped run operations out of NORAD and retired in October as deputy of U.S. Cyber Command.

Analysts think the balloons, like drones, can be remotely piloted — at about 30 to 60 mph, said one official. And because balloons float along high-altitude winds, their paths are less predictable and thus more difficult to track. The balloons are also much cheaper to produce and launch than space-based satellites....

Earthquake lessons for California

Photo: Khalil Hamra, Associated Press

In today's LA Times:

by Rong-Gong Lin II

This week’s catastrophic earthquake in Turkey and Syria is just the latest warning of the potential risks for California and other seismically active areas.

Some California cities have retrofitted or demolished problem buildings following quakes in the 1980s and 1990s. But many buildings in the state have not endured the same kind of intense shaking experienced in Turkey and Syria.

The magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck southeastern Turkey at 4:17 a.m. local time Monday on the East Anatolian fault. Aftershocks have rippled throughout the southeast part of the country and Syria. A powerful magnitude 7.5 aftershock on a different fault struck nine hours later, with an epicenter 60 miles to the northeast, producing another round of devastation.

The San Andreas fault is capable of similar activity....

Two of those have occurred on the San Andreas: the 1906 earthquake that destroyed much of San Francisco and the 1857 quake that ruptured a length of the fault from Monterey County through Los Angeles County and into the Cajon Pass.

“There will be 7.8s in our future. Absolutely. We have the faults, we’ve seen it in the past, it will happen again,” said seismologist Lucy Jones, a research associate at Caltech. “The timing of them, as far as we can tell, is random. And there’s no way to say when it’s going to be happening....compared to the long-term average, we’ve been quiet for a while.”

The scale of the building collapses in Turkey and Syria, some captured on video, could be attributed to a number of factors. Some of the structures may have been built before the advent of modern building codes. The collapses could also be due to corruption in safety inspections or incompetence in design practices — issues that have come up in Mexico, Taiwan and New Zealand....

Structural engineers have said that a big quake in California would also be devastating, if not on the same scale. They have long warned about the risk of brittle, concrete buildings collapsing, as occurred during the 1971 Sylmar and 1994 Northridge quakes. When the concrete Veterans Administration Hospital in San Fernando pancaked in the 1971 earthquake, 49 people were killed.

Minimum construction requirements were strengthened in the years after the Sylmar quake, but those rules affected only new construction. More concrete buildings suffered significant damage in the 1994 Northridge quake.

....A concrete school in Mexico City that collapsed in that quake killed 19 students and seven adults.

Videos and photos from Turkey and Syria show building of various eras — some old, some modern — collapsing. But they also show that many others survived the shaking. Experts say new buildings in Turkey — when properly built to local codes — are comparable to California’s standards.

Some of the collapses in Turkey occurred many hours after the predawn mainshock. The magnitude 7.5 aftershock occurred around 1:24 p.m.

Whether from one quake or two, “the longer the duration [of shaking], the better the chance a building is going to collapse,” David Cocke said....

In California, a magnitude 7.8 quake would produce damage far more widespread than was caused by the tremblors of the past century. 

A U.S. Geological Survey simulation of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Southern California led researchers to determine that it was plausible such a quake could cause nearly 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries, and destroy major utilities carrying fuel, power and water.

In Northern California, a simulation of a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward fault east of San Francisco showed that there could be at least 800 deaths from the quake, plus hundreds more from fires afterward.

Either scenario would result in the deadliest earthquakes to hit California in more than 100 years. A magnitude 7.5 quake on the Puente Hills fault — which runs underneath highly populated areas of L.A. and Orange counties — could kill 3,000 to 18,000 people, according to the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center.

Of the world’s active seismic zones, California and Turkey, along with New Zealand, are in a category of their own. These three areas have long, mature faults and are on land, as opposed to Japan, where the biggest faults are under the ocean.

In Turkey, the East Anatolian and North Anatolian faults are of a similar type to the San Andreas — relatively more likely to rupture in a single human’s lifetime than others....

The East Anatolian fault, like the San Andreas, is a strike-slip fault — one that runs vertically, and the ground moves sideways during the rupture.

“You get very strong shaking right along the fault, much stronger than you see even not too far away,” Jones said.

The fact that the epicenters of the two major Turkey quakes were 60 miles apart shows that follow-ups can occur at a distance from the main shock.

“Lots of aftershocks are on other faults,” Lucy Jones said.