Risk acceptance

Kevin Drum

 Kevin Drum:

....the highest infection rate by far is among the very elderly, especially those in nursing homes. But they were the first to be vaccinated, and since then confirmed cases among nursing home residents and staff have plummeted...

....the mortality rate among other age groups has dropped substantially too....The mortality rate for the elderly outside of nursing homes continues to be fairly high, so they should probably continue to isolate for another month or two. 

However, just because they have to isolate doesn't mean that everyone should isolate even if their risk is low. And it is: The average death rate for adults under 50 was about 9 per million in February, almost exactly the same as the automobile death rate. And no one suggests we should all stop driving, do they?

This is not the most cautious approach to the pandemic, but neither is it ridiculous—especially with rising vaccination rates almost certain to keep pushing both case and death rates down. 

Though in no case does it excuse the pigheaded insistence on removing mandates for masking and social distancing, both of which are minimally troublesome and clearly save lives.

Overall, then, opening up now makes sense if your willingness to accept risk is just a little higher than average. I imagine that risk acceptance exists on a bell curve just like almost everything else, so it's bound to be the case that some states will open up early, a whole bunch will open up a little later, and a few will be laggards. That's just human nature.

Rob's comment:

Drum ignores an important point: accepting risk yourself doesn't mean you can put others at risk. 

That's the point about wearing a mask: it doesn't protect you much, but it does protect people around you if you are infectious.

And you can be infectious without knowing it.